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The following data represent total personnel expenses for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for past four fiscal years:
$20.00
Financial Forecasting
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- Posted on Apr. 12, 2011 at 09:29:06AM
A:
Preview: ... both finances and for performance, intake, caseloads, etc., is highly favorable for an organization and their accomplishments (Martin, 2001). There is some major importance and usefulness when it comes to the older data that has been collected. If an organization looks at information on a quarterly basis, the organization could use older data to see when programs were running their slowest or lowest points and vice versa see when programs were running at their highest point. With this information, programs can adjust staffing and other things accordingly to past trends (Martin, 2001).
So to answer the question which method of forecasting I would find most beneficial for a human services organization I would have to say it would depend on how apparent the trend in is the data.
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Exercise 9.1
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The following data represent total personnel expenses for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for past four fiscal years:
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20X1 $5,250,000
20X2 $5,500,000
20X3 $6,000,000
20X4 $6,750,000
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For moving averages and weighted moving averages, use only the data for the past three fiscal years. For weighted moving averages, assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2, a value of 2 to the data for 20X3, and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. Forecast personnel expenses for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, and time series regression.
Moving Averages
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Fiscal Year    Expenses
20X2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â $5,500,000
20X3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â $6,000,000
20X4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â $6,750,000
 20X2-4        $18,250,000
 ...
The full tutorial is about 903 words long plus attachments.
Forecasting CheckPoint.doc (35K)